The Academy Awards ceremony is this Sunday, February 26th at 8:30 PM EST. It is on ABC. Check your local listings.
I’m posting this list so you can either be amazed at my overall movie knowledge, or so that you can ridicule me for being wrong. Hopefully it’s more the former than the latter. My goal is more than 50% correct, with a hope of 75% (18 of 24 categories), although that may not be realistic. I got 16 out of 24 (67%) last year. Good or bad I will do a follow-up post on how I did.
Here is the complete list of nominations in all twenty-four categories. What I would pick is highlighted in yellow. No highlight means I have not seen any of the choices. What I think will win is in bold. I will also say if I think my choice is a lock, likely, educated guess, or wild-ass guess.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Confidence – Lock
Comment – The Artist has won most other awards leading up to the Oscars.
Best Animated Picture
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Rango seems to be the favorite.
Best Foreign Language Picture
Bullhead (from Belgium
Footnote (from Israel
In Darkness (from Poland
Monsieur Lazhar (from Canada
A Separation (from Iran
Confidence – Likely
Comment – A Separation has won most other awards leading up to the Oscars.
Best Documentary
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls
Pina
Undefeated
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – This is the one documentary that actually had an impact – it got 3 men released from jail for a crime they probably didn’t commit. Of course, more often than not the Academy’s choice for doc winner doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, so who knows what they are going to pick.
Best Actor
Demian Bichir (in A Better Life)
George Clooney (in The Descendants)
Jean Dujardin (in The Artist)
Gary Oldman (in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Brad Pitt (in Moneyball)
Confidence – Likely
Comment – Dujardin seems to be the favorite.
Best Actress
Glenn Close (in Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis
Rooney Mara (in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Meryl Streep (in The Iron Lady)
Michelle Williams (in My Week with Marilyn)
Confidence – Likely
Comment – Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh (in My Week with Marilyn)
Jonah Hill (in Moneyball)
Nick Nolte (in Warrior)
Christopher Plummer (in Beginners)
Max von Sydow (in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Confidence – Lock
Comment – Christopher Plummer has won just about everything leading up to the Oscars and his role has everything the Academy loves.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo (in The Artist)
Jessica Chastain (in The Help)
Melissa McCarthy (in Bridesmaids)
Janet McTeer (in Albert Nobbs)
Octavia Spencer (in The Help)
Confidence – Likely
Comment – Like Viola Davis, Spencer has also won most awards leading up to the Oscars.
Best Director
Woody Allen (for Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius (for The Artist)
Terence Malick (for The Tree of Life)
Alexander Payne (for The Descendants)
Martin Scorcese (for Hugo)
Confidence – Likely
Comment – The Best Director and Best Picture awards usually go to the same movie. Last year I went out on a limb picking two different choices and got burned. This year I am not going to overthink things.
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Confidence – Lock
Comment – Midnight is Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – The Descendants won the WGA award, so I am going with it here.
Best Original Song
Man or Muppet (from The Muppets)
Real in Rio (from Rio )
Confidence – Likely
Comment – I don’t think the nostalgia for the Muppets will be able to overtake the fun of the Rio song.
Best Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – I figure the score of a movie is more noticeable and has a greater impact when most of the movie has no dialogue.
Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – The fact that The Tree of Life got Best Picture and Best Director nominations shows there is a large faction within the Academy that are fans of Terrence Malick. This film is all about the stunning images in it, and this will give the Academy a chance to reward his film.
Best Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo had a ton of edits in it. Usually those are the films that are more likely to get the award.
Best Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – This may be a throw in with The Artist, but I figure people will want to honor Hugo where they can, since it is unlikely to win any of the major awards.
Best Costumes
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – This is another throw in category for Best Picture.
Best Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Confidence – Likely
Comment – The change to Glenn Close’s appearance is quite something with the makeup that was used.
Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – People might want to honor the end of the Harry Potter franchise, but I think the motion capture ape effects in Rise will be the winner.
Best Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – A throw in with Best Editing.
Best Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – A throw in with Best Sound Editing.
Best Animated Short
Dimanche
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – It’s about books.
Best Documentary Short
The Barber of Birmingham
God is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – A coin flip between the recovery from the Japanese tsunami and crimes against women, both of which would attract Academy voters.
Best Live Action Short
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – It’s about adopting a foreign child.
Summary of Picks by Confidence Level
Lock:
- Best Picture
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Original Screenplay
Likely
- Best Foreign Language Picture
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Director
- Best Original Song
- Best Makeup
Educated Guess
- Best Animated Picture
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Original Score
- Best Cinematography
- Best Editing
- Best Art Direction
- Best Costumes
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Sound Editing
- Best Sound Mixing
Wild-Ass Guess
- Best Documentary
- Best Animated Short
- Best Documentary Short
- Best Live Action Short
I like that you admit your level of confidence of any of the categories. Some are almost given while others are just plain blind guesses in my predictions. Let's see who's gonna have the most correct predictions. Good luck!
ReplyDelete@Michael Parent - Good luck to you, too. I've always been a little amused by the professional critics who get lucky on a few more obscure categories and who try to put on airs afterwards like they knew it all along, when they probably could have had the same result by having their 5 year old pick those categories. Last year I got all my "Lock"s and "Likely"s, about half my "Educated Guess"es and none of my "Wild-ass Guess"es. This year I've since seen a lot of people picking The Muppets' song, rather than the Rio song, and it's made me wonder if I should have made that an "Educated Guess" instead of a "Likely".
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