My (Last Minute) 2014 Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards ceremony is tonight on ABC.  Check your local listings. 

I first tried to pick the Oscar winners three years ago.  I got a respectable 16 out of 24 correct.  The last two years I’ve tried to really do my homework and see as many nominees as possible.  The result?  I dropped to 14 out of 24 then 12 out of 24.

This year I simply haven’t had the time to do the same amount of homework.  I’m making these picks with about a much overall knowledge of them as I did the first year.  I’m curious to see if my number goes up again.  Good or bad I will do a follow-up post on how I did.

Here is the complete list of nominations in all twenty-four categories.  What I would pick is highlighted in yellow.  No highlight means I have not seen any of the choices.  What I think will win is in bold.  I will also say if I think my choice is a lock, likely, educated guess, or wild-ass guess.

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – The subject matter of 12 Years a Slave is more appealing to vote for than The Wolf of Wall Street or Gravity.

Best Animated Picture

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Confidence – Likely

Comment – It’s possible The Wind Rises will sneak in, but Frozen seems like the frontrunner.

Best Foreign Language Picture

The Broken Circle Breakdown		Belgium
The Great Beauty		Italy
The Hunt		Denmark
The Missing Picture		Cambodia
Omar		Palestine

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – The Great Beauty seems to be winning this at most other awards shows.

Best Documentary

20 Feet from Stardom

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

Confidence – Wild Ass Guess

Comment – The topic may attract voters.

Best Actor

Christian Bale	American Hustle
Bruce Dern	Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio	The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor	12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey	Dallas Buyers Club

Confidence – Likely

Comment – DiCaprio did a great job, but the subject matter will turn off some voters.

Best Actress

Amy Adams	American Hustle
Cate Blanchett	Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock	Gravity
Judi Dench	Philomena
Meryl Streep	August: Osage County

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – I haven’t seen Blanchett’s performance, but she seems to be the frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi	Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper	American Hustle
Michael Fassbender	12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill	The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto	Dallas Buyers Club

Confidence – Likely

Comment – Leto seems to be winning this at most awards shows.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins	Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence	American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o	12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts	August: Osage County
June Squibb	Nebraska

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Nyong’o is in the more important film, but Lawrence is better known and therefore better liked.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron	Gravity
Steve McQueen	12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne	Nebraska
David O. Russell	American Hustle
Martin Scorcese	The Wolf of Wall Street

Confidence – Likely

Comment – Gravity was a tremendous achievement and Cuaron deserves recognition for that. 

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Dallas Buyers Club

Her

Nebraska

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – The voters do tend to actually pick the one they think is the best in this category, rather than just include this as a throw in with the bigger awards.  Woody Allen is a favorite with voters, though, so Blue Jasmine is a possibility.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – The voters get another chance to reward 12 Years a Slave.

Best Original Song

Happy	Despicable Me 2
Let It Go	Frozen
The Moon Song	Her
Ordinary Love	Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Confidence – Lock

Comment – I will fall off my couch in shock if this doesn’t win.

Best Original Score

The Book Thief

Gravity

Her

Philomena

Saving Mr. Banks

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – The start of a bunch of wins for Gravity in the more technical categories to make up for it not winning Best Picture. 

Best Cinematography

The Grandmaster

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Prisoners

Confidence – Likely

Comment – The visuals in this film are stunning and even though they are cgi, Avatar won this award and it was 60% an entirely animated film. 

Best Editing

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Gravity once again for the frenetic pace of many of the scenes. 

Best Production Design

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Gravity

The Great Gatsby

Her

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – I haven’t seen The Great Gatsby, but knowing Luhrman it was probably flashy as hell and voters like flash.  I may regret not picking it. 

Best Costumes

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

The Grandmaster

The Great Gatsby

The Invisible Woman

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Recreating the hair and clothes of the late Seventies will probably win American Hustle this award. 

Best Makeup

Dallas Buyers Club

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

The Lone Ranger

Confidence – Likely

Comment – I simply can’t see people voting for either of the other two films simply because of how poorly they compare to Dallas Buyers Club. 

Best Visual Effects

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Iron Man 3

The Lone Ranger

Star Trek into Darkness

Confidence – Likely

Comment – Smaug may have been more impressive in creating the fantastic, but Gravity is the anointed one this year. 

Best Sound Editing

All Is Lost

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Lone Survivor

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Gravity continues to win most of the categories it is nominated in. 

Best Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lone Survivor

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Gravity continues to win most of the categories it is nominated in. 

Best Animated Short

Feral

Get a Horse!

Mr. Hublot

Possessions

Room on the Broom

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess

Comment – It’s got an exclamation point in the title. Other than that, I know nothing about any of these.

Best Documentary Short

Cave Digger

Facing Fear

Karama Has No Walls

The Lady in Number 6

Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess

Comment – I know nothing about any of these. 

Best Live Action Short

Aquel No Era Yo

Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?

Helium

Just Before Losing Everything

The Voorman Problem

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess

Comment – I know nothing about any of these. 

Summary of Picks by Confidence Level

Lock:

1. Best Original Song

Likely

1. Best Animated Picture
2. Best Actor
3. Best Supporting Actor
4. Best Director
5. Best Cinematography
6. Best Makeup
7. Best Visual Effects

Educated Guess

1. Best Picture
2. Best Foreign Language Picture
3. Best Actress
4. Best Supporting Actress
5. Best Original Screenplay
6. Best Adapted Screenplay
7. Best Original Score
8. Best Editing
9. Best Production Design
10. Best Costumes
11. Best Sound Editing
12. Best Sound Mixing

Wild-Ass Guess

1. Best Documentary
2. Best Animated Short
3. Best Documentary Short
4. Best Live Action Short