Saturday, February 23, 2013

My 2013 Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards ceremony is this Sunday, February 24th at 8:00 PM EST.  It is on ABC.  Check your local listings. 

I’m posting this list so you can either be amazed at my overall movie knowledge, or so that you can laugh at me for being wrong.  Hopefully it’s more the former than the latter.  My goal is more than 50% correct, with a hope of 75% (18 of 24 categories), although that may not be realistic.  I got 14 out of 24 (58%) last year.  I got 16 out of 24 (67%) two years ago.  Good or bad I will do a follow-up post on how I did.

Here is the complete list of nominations in all twenty-four categories.  What I would pick is highlighted in yellow.  No highlight means I have not seen any of the choices.  What I think will win is in bold.  I will also say if I think my choice is a lock, likely, educated guess, or wild-ass guess.


Best Picture

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Likely
Comment – While I enjoyed Django Unchained a little more, Argo is the better choice.

Best Animated Picture

Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

Confidence – Likely
Comment – Wreck-It Ralph is well separated from the other nominees.

Best Foreign Language Picture

Amour
(from Austria)
War Witch
(from Canada)
No
(from Chile)
A Royal Affair
(from Denmark)
Kon-Tiki
(from Norway)

Confidence – Lock
Comment – If Amour doesn’t win it will be a massive shock.

Best Documentary

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Appealing story overcomes questionable documentary work.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper
(in Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis
(in Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman 
(in Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix
(in The Master)
Denzel Washington
(in Flight)

Confidence – Lock
Comment – Day-Lewis is poised to become the first to win three Best Actor Oscars.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain    
(in Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence    
(in Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva  
(in Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis   
(in Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts
(in The Impossible)

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Lawrence is the front runner, but there might be enough people figuring she’s got plenty of time to be nominated again, while this is probably the last chance Riva will have to win an Oscar.  I may regret not picking Riva.  (Remember last year when Viola Davis was a lock and Streep won?)

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin
(in Argo)
Robert De Niro
(in Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman   
(in The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones
(in Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz
(in Django Unchained)

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Jones is the front runner, but De Niro might be in the same situation as Streep last year where it’s been a long time since he last won and this is a film that people will want to reward.  His odds go up if Lawrence does not win Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams
(in The Master)
Sally Field
(in Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway
(in Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt
(in The Sessions)
Jackie Weaver
(in Silver Linings Playbook)

Confidence – Lock
Comment – In a weak field Hathaway runs away with it. 

Best Director

Michael Haneke  
(for Amour)
Ang Lee
(for Life of Pi)
David O. Russell
(for Silver Linings Playbook)
Steven Spielberg
(for Lincoln)
Benh Zeitlin
(for Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Confidence – Likely
Comment – Spielberg obviously benefits from Ben Affleck not being nominated. 

Best Original Screenplay

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – This category is sometimes where the smaller films like Moonrise Kingdom get recognition, but I think enough people will want to reward Zero Dark Thirty. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Here begins Argo’s sweep of most of the categories it was nominated in as a reaction to not being able to vote for Affleck for Best Director. 

Best Original Song

Before My Time
(from Chasing Ice)
Suddenly
(from Les Miserables)
Pi’s Lullaby
(from Life of Pi)
Skyfall
(from Skyfall)
Everybody Needs a Best Friend
(from Ted)

Confidence – Likely
Comment – The song category is about mainstream popularity and Skyfall is definitely the nominee where this applies the most.  Toss in the fact that the song was written and performed by Adele and this puts it over the top. 

Best Original Score

Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – The score had the most impact for me in Life of Pi, but like I mentioned above, I think Argo will win most categories it is nominated in. 

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Even though there was quite a bit of use of cgi in the film, I think that where much of the movie takes place on the ocean and where they were able to keep showing new and interesting views of it, that Life of Pi will win. 

Best Editing

Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Argo’s competition is Zero Dark Thirty, but I think the sympathy for Argo will cause it to win here. 

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Lincoln just oozes quality in every frame. 

Best Costumes

Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsmen

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – I have not seen Anna Karenina, but I know the story and the costumes in it would have been beautiful, while the ones in Lincoln and Les Miserables were appropriately dull and/or ugly. 

Best Makeup

Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – I could see any of the three winning, Hitchcock for how much it made the performers look like the real people they were playing, The Hobbit for the extensive amount of makeup and prosthetics needed, and Les Miserables because it’s a Best Picture nominee. 

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Hunstmen

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Voters get a chance to honor the enormously entertaining and popular film. 

Best Sound Editing

Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Argo continues to win most of the categories it is nominated in. 

Best Sound Mixing

Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Argo continues to win most of the categories it is nominated in. 

Best Animated Short

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – It’s the Simpsons. 

Best Documentary Short

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – The subject matter is one that the Academy likes to reward. 

Best Live Action Short

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – The subject matter is one that the Academy likes to reward. 

Summary of Picks by Confidence Level

Lock:
  1. Best Foreign Language Film
  2. Best Actor
  3. Best Supporting Actress
Likely
  1. Best Picture
  2. Best Animated Picture
  3. Best Director
  4. Best Original Song
Educated Guess
  1. Best Documentary
  2. Best Actress
  3. Best Supporting Actor
  4. Best Original Screenplay
  5. Best Adapted Screenplay
  6. Best Original Score
  7. Best Cinematography
  8. Best Editing
  9. Best Production Design
  10. Best Costumes
  11. Best Visual Effects
  12. Best Sound Editing
  13. Best Sound Mixing
Wild-Ass Guess
  1. Best Makeup
  2. Best Animated Short
  3. Best Documentary Short
  4. Best Live Action Short

2 comments:

  1. I still don't understand how Affleck didn't get a nomination. I think he won everything else.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed, although Affleck not being nominated may have cemented him winning one or more of those other awards.

      Several years back Jim Carrey won two Golden Globes for Best Actor back to back and didn't even receive a nomination for the Best Actor Oscar either time. After the first time he took the high road and accepted the consolation prize of showing up to present an Oscar (and he even good naturedly joked about it), but the next year when they did it to him again he told them "thanks, but no thanks" in regards to presenting.

      For many years Spielberg was never given an Oscar for Best Director until he did Schindler's List and basically forced the Academy to acknowledge him and his work. In some cases, once the Academy decides they don't like you, you're toast.

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