My 2013 Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards ceremony is this Sunday, February 24^th at 8:00 PM EST.  It is on ABC.  Check your local listings. 

I’m posting this list so you can either be amazed at my overall movie knowledge, or so that you can laugh at me for being wrong.  Hopefully it’s more the former than the latter.  My goal is more than 50% correct, with a hope of 75% (18 of 24 categories), although that may not be realistic.  I got 14 out of 24 (58%) last year.  I got 16 out of 24 (67%) two years ago.  Good or bad I will do a follow-up post on how I did.

Here is the complete list of nominations in all twenty-four categories.  What I would pick is highlighted in yellow.  No highlight means I have not seen any of the choices.  What I think will win is in bold.  I will also say if I think my choice is a lock, likely, educated guess, or wild-ass guess.

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Likely

Comment – While I enjoyed Django Unchained a little more, Argo is the better choice.

Best Animated Picture

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Confidence – Likely

Comment – Wreck-It Ralph is well separated from the other nominees.

Best Foreign Language Picture

Amour	(from Austria)
War Witch	(from Canada)
No	(from Chile)
A Royal Affair	(from Denmark)
Kon-Tiki	(from Norway)

Confidence – Lock

Comment – If Amour doesn’t win it will be a massive shock.

Best Documentary

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Appealing story overcomes questionable documentary work.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper	(in Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis	(in Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman	(in Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix	(in The Master)
Denzel Washington	(in Flight)

Confidence – Lock

Comment – Day-Lewis is poised to become the first to win three Best Actor Oscars.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain	(in Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence	(in Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva	(in Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis	(in Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts	(in The Impossible)

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Lawrence is the front runner, but there might be enough people figuring she’s got plenty of time to be nominated again, while this is probably the last chance Riva will have to win an Oscar.  I may regret not picking Riva.  (Remember last year when Viola Davis was a lock and Streep won?)

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin	(in Argo)
Robert De Niro	(in Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman	(in The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones	(in Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz	(in Django Unchained)

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Jones is the front runner, but De Niro might be in the same situation as Streep last year where it’s been a long time since he last won and this is a film that people will want to reward.  His odds go up if Lawrence does not win Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams	(in The Master)
Sally Field	(in Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway	(in Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt	(in The Sessions)
Jackie Weaver	(in Silver Linings Playbook)

Confidence – Lock

Comment – In a weak field Hathaway runs away with it. 

Best Director

Michael Haneke	(for Amour)
Ang Lee	(for Life of Pi)
David O. Russell	(for Silver Linings Playbook)
Steven Spielberg	(for Lincoln)
Benh Zeitlin	(for Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Confidence – Likely

Comment – Spielberg obviously benefits from Ben Affleck not being nominated. 

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – This category is sometimes where the smaller films like Moonrise Kingdom get recognition, but I think enough people will want to reward Zero Dark Thirty. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Here begins Argo’s sweep of most of the categories it was nominated in as a reaction to not being able to vote for Affleck for Best Director. 

Best Original Song

Before My Time	(from Chasing Ice)
Suddenly	(from Les Miserables)
Pi’s Lullaby	(from Life of Pi)
Skyfall	(from Skyfall)
Everybody Needs a Best Friend	(from Ted)

Confidence – Likely

Comment – The song category is about mainstream popularity and Skyfall is definitely the nominee where this applies the most.  Toss in the fact that the song was written and performed by Adele and this puts it over the top. 

Best Original Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – The score had the most impact for me in Life of Pi, but like I mentioned above, I think Argo will win most categories it is nominated in. 

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Even though there was quite a bit of use of cgi in the film, I think that where much of the movie takes place on the ocean and where they were able to keep showing new and interesting views of it, that Life of Pi will win. 

Best Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Argo’s competition is Zero Dark Thirty, but I think the sympathy for Argo will cause it to win here. 

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Lincoln just oozes quality in every frame. 

Best Costumes

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsmen

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – I have not seen Anna Karenina, but I know the story and the costumes in it would have been beautiful, while the ones in Lincoln and Les Miserables were appropriately dull and/or ugly. 

Best Makeup

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess

Comment – I could see any of the three winning, Hitchcock for how much it made the performers look like the real people they were playing, The Hobbit for the extensive amount of makeup and prosthetics needed, and Les Miserables because it’s a Best Picture nominee. 

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Hunstmen

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Voters get a chance to honor the enormously entertaining and popular film. 

Best Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Argo continues to win most of the categories it is nominated in. 

Best Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Confidence – Educated Guess

Comment – Argo continues to win most of the categories it is nominated in. 

Best Animated Short

Adam and Dog

Fresh Guacamole

Head Over Heels

Paperman

The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess

Comment – It’s the Simpsons. 

Best Documentary Short

Inocente

Kings Point

Mondays at Racine

Open Heart

Redemption

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess

Comment – The subject matter is one that the Academy likes to reward. 

Best Live Action Short

Asad

Buzkashi Boys

Curfew

Death of a Shadow

Henry

Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess

Comment – The subject matter is one that the Academy likes to reward. 

Summary of Picks by Confidence Level

Lock:

1. Best Foreign Language Film
2. Best Actor
3. Best Supporting Actress

Likely

1. Best Picture
2. Best Animated Picture
3. Best Director
4. Best Original Song

Educated Guess

1. Best Documentary
2. Best Actress
3. Best Supporting Actor
4. Best Original Screenplay
5. Best Adapted Screenplay
6. Best Original Score
7. Best Cinematography
8. Best Editing
9. Best Production Design
10. Best Costumes
11. Best Visual Effects
12. Best Sound Editing
13. Best Sound Mixing

Wild-Ass Guess

1. Best Makeup
2. Best Animated Short
3. Best Documentary Short
4. Best Live Action Short