The Academy Awards ceremony is this Sunday, February 27th at 8:30 PM EST. It is on ABC. Check your local listings.
I’m posting this list so you can either be amazed at my overall movie knowledge, or so that you can ridicule me for being wrong. Hopefully it’s more the former than the latter. My goal is more than 50% correct, with a hope of 75% (18 of 24 categories), although that is probably not realistic. Good or bad I will do a follow-up post on how I did.
Here is the complete list of nominations in all twenty-four categories. What I would pick is highlighted in yellow. No highlight means I have not seen any of the choices. What I think will win is in bold. I will also say if I think my choice is a lock, likely, educated guess, or wild-ass guess.
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Confidence – Likely
Comment – The King’s Speech has come on strong in the last month. The Social Network peaked too early.
Best Animated Picture
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Confidence – Lock
Comment – I will be absolutely stunned if Toy Story 3 does not win.
Best Foreign Language Picture
Biutiful (from Mexico
Dogtooth (from Greece
In a Better World (from Denmark
Incendies (from Canada
Outside the Law (from Algeria
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – In a Better World won the Golden Globe, so I am going with it here.
Best Documentary
Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Exit through the Gift Shop is definitely the most liked and most talked about documentary. Some people question whether it is really a documentary or if the viewer is getting the wool pulled over their eyes. This might make people vote for something else.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem (in Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (in True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (in The Social Network)
Colin Firth (in The King’s Speech)
James Franco (in 127 Hours)
Confidence – Lock
Comment – I think Firth has won just about everyone’s Best Actor award at ceremonies leading up to this one.
Best Actress
Annette Bening (in The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (in Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (in Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (in Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (in Blue Valentine)
Confidence – Likely
Comment – A week ago I would have said this was a lock. There have been some people saying that Annette Bening could pull the upset here. I hope not, as Portman deserves it.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (in The Fighter)
John Hawkes (in Winter’s Bone)
Jeremy Renner (in The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (in The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (in The King’s Speech)
Confidence – Lock
Comment – Bale has won just as often as Firth coming into the Oscars.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (in The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (in The King’s Speech)
Melissa Leo (in The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (in True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (in Animal Kingdom)
Confidence – Likely
Comment – Steinfeld is unlikely to win because enough voters will disqualify her since hers was a leading role, not a supporting one.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (for Black Swan)
Joel and Ethan Coen (for True Grit)
David Fincher (for The Social Network)
Tom Hooper (for The King’s Speech)
David O. Russell (for The Fighter)
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – The Best Director and Best Picture awards usually go to the same movie, so I am going out on a limb by making this pick. I think that Fincher might still have enough mojo going for The Social Network, and he also falls into the “been doing good work for a while and deserves to be recognized” category.
Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – The smart money may be on The King’s Speech, but I think voters here might do a “make up” vote for Christopher Nolan for being snubbed in the Best Director category. Also, the screenplay for The King’s Speech is not original. It was based on the book by the son of the speech therapist. He just didn’t get any legal credit for the story.
Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – The Social Network was the Best Picture front runner for a while and I think this award will stick with it. Pixar has won here before, though, and it would not surprise me if they did again.
Best Original Song
Coming Home (from Country Strong)
I See the Light (from Tangled)
If I Rise (from 127 Hours)
We Belong Together (from Toy Story 3)
Confidence – Likely
Comment – A chance for voters to reward Pixar again.
Best Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – This is a toss up between The King’s Speech and The Social Network. This category is often a throw in with the Best Picture winner. The Social Network was the only score that really stood out, though. Trent Reznor (The Social Network) may turn off the older Academy voters.
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – This will give the voters a chance to reward True Grit and cinematographer Roger Deakins who has been nominated many times, but has never won.
Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Black Swan is probably a little too out there for the older Academy voters. The Social Network is the safer choice for them to make.
Best Art Direction
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – This is another throw in category for Best Picture, so The King’s Speech might get picked instead of Alice
Best Costumes
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – This is another throw in category for Best Picture, so The King’s Speech might get picked instead of Alice
Best Makeup
Barney’s Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
Confidence – Likely
Comment – Rick Baker practically invented this category. He has won six Oscars already and I think this will be the seventh.
Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Confidence – Lock
Comment – This is the category everyone will vote for Inception in, to show that the Oscars are “still relevant.”
Best Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Another throw in vote for Inception in the technical categories.
Best Sound Mixing
Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
Confidence – Educated Guess
Comment – Another throw in vote for Inception in the technical categories. The King’s Speech is the movie where sound actually mattered the most, and since it will probably win Best Picture it would not surprise me to see it win here.
Best Animated Short
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – Day & Night is from Pixar and people respect them a lot. It’s also the first name on the list.
Best Documentary Short
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – It’s the first name on the list.
Best Live Action Short
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
Confidence – Wild-Ass Guess
Comment – It’s the first name on the list.
Summary of Picks by Confidence Level
Lock:
- Best Animated Picture
- Best Actor
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Visual Effects
Likely
- Best Picture
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Original Song
- Best Makeup
Educated Guess
- Best Foreign Language Picture
- Best Documentary
- Best Director
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Cinematography
- Best Editing
- Best Costumes
- Best Sound Editing
- Best Sound Mixing
Wild-Ass Guess
- Best Original Score
- Best Art Direction
- Best Animated Short
- Best Documentary Short
- Best Live Action Short
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